Wednesday, January 6, 2010

We're getting mixed messages

Love Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's optimisim in today's State of the State address. Even in desperate times for California (see here, here and here), the governator's hope is a chocolate cookie for the soul.

Of course, you gotta wash that cookie down with a glass full of gravel.

According to a report from the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific (access the report from this page), San Joaquin County and the Central Valley will lag behind even the state's "sluggish" economic recovery.

The main culprits, according to the center: the absolute implosion of the construction industry; state, county, city and school budget cuts; and the pending closure of Toyota's NUMMI plant.

When NUMMI is combined with foreclosures, the construction depression, and a new round of state budget cuts, the recession will continue through the first half of 2010 for the Northern San Joaquin Valley, Sacramento, and portions of the East Bay. While the entire state faces housing and state and local budget challenges, the impacts are most severe in these regions.

In other words, the Central Valley still occupies its traditional role as the state's economic struggler.

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